Without much joy or hope, Z-futurologist Maksim Kalashnikov looks toward the future:
“This text appeared on the private channel ‘Razvedchik’:
‘The General Staff has placed a summer offensive plan on Putin’s desk, sources report. They propose reallocating troops from border duties to the operation, with North Korean soldiers being prepared to replace them
.
The Chief of the General Staff personally briefed the president on readiness for a large-scale phase of operations in the coming months, including advancing beyond the “new regions.” The main scenario, which insiders reviewed, includes a push into the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions to create a buffer zone by the end of summer. There are also plans to reach Odesa.
The General Staff is proposing to expand the zone of control as much as possible before autumn rains arrive and mud season hampers vehicle movement, forcing both sides into positional warfare. According to the source, Russia is believed to have sufficient resources for such an operation.’”
Even if 30,000 North Koreans replace our border guards, a large-scale offensive (let alone crossing the Dnipro!) is not going to happen.
The issue of paralyzing the Ukrainian Armed Forces' rear areas with an air campaign has not been resolved. Their command and supply lines are intact.
As a result, the problem of the enemy’s mass drone use remains unresolved—creating a "kill zone" 50 km deep from the front line. In other words, the enemy will inflict massive losses on our troops and equipment, turning any offensive into a repeat of Passchendaele or the Nivelle Offensive in WWI, while holding their line with relatively stretched forces. Our numerical advantage (but not qualitative or organizational, especially in drone warfare) solves nothing. Our air force remains in disarray and cannot isolate specific battle zones.
So—what “dash to Odesa”? At most, it’ll be a slow, costly push against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s all the bloated, nepotistic, corrupt, and stagnant System knows how to do.
One thing is true: this summer is the last chance. After that, the deepening economic crisis in Russia will destroy the country’s ability to continue the war. And (https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/16147) both Ukraine and Russia are running out of steam. No “cosmetic fixes” can untangle the giant knot of squandered opportunities and total disregard for the lessons of modern warfare, tangled since 2014 and 2022. It’s too late for mineral water when the kidneys have failed.
That’s why we’ll likely have to do as Trump wishes…” — Roy TV – Maksim Kalashnikov
